Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 05S.CHANDA 99S.INVEST Inside the Mozambique Channel.--Cyclone10 00:05, January 6, 2012 (UTC) This storm looks like it could cause some serious flooding, but i'm not expecting signifigant development of this system. Possibly it could become a minimal cyclone, but that's probrably it. I would be a bit surprised if we don't get Chanda at all though. BTW, we forgot to add the damage total section in the betting pools; I just put that in now. ''Ryan1000'' 00:12, January 6, 2012 (UTC) It looks better on satellite now.--Cyclone10 02:38, January 6, 2012 (UTC) TCFA alert!--Cy10 21:16, January 6, 2012 (UTC) Here comes Chanda... ''Ryan1000'' 01:03, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Not yet...--Cy10 03:55, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Still not yet...--Cy10 19:13, January 7, 2012 (UTC) It probably be upgrade at any moment Allanjeffs 21:49, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 05S On Wikipedia, it says this is a zone of disturbed weather, but I'm not sure if that counts as a tropical cyclone. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:44, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Now it has been designated Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC. And no, we don't have Chanda quite yet. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:48, January 7, 2012 (UTC) It's so close to becoming Chanda though... As I said earlier, it will probrably intensify into a category 1 storm or so before making landfall in Madagascar's southwest coast. The current forecast only takes it to a tropical storm, but given the way it looks, i'd be surprised if it doesn't become a minimal cyclone. ''Ryan1000'' 23:53, January 7, 2012 (UTC) You mean a moderate tropical storm?--Cy10 00:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Well, yeah, but anyhow, I still think Chanda will become a C1 cyclone in the future. And we can leave it as Tropical Cyclone 05S in the storms header, there's no need to put in so many words. Wunderground has it as 05S, JTWC has it as 05S, we should too. ''Ryan1000'' 01:01, January 8, 2012 (UTC) I don`t think it will be much maybe a moderate to severe tropical storm Allanjeffs 02:03, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda Named and at 35kts 10-min. Yqt1001 15:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC) It won't get strong before its Madagascar landfall according to the official forecast (unless it pulls a Lorenzo or Humberto and becomes a tropical cyclone). Andrew444TalkBlog 15:29, January 8, 2012 (UTC) I knew it was not going to be much just a rainmaker Allanjeffs 19:48, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ...and there goes the last advisory by JTWC..--Cy10 23:09, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Made landfall and should dissipate soon. I don't expect to see much damage other than rainfall. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:48, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Chanda Is it a fail?--Cy10 03:04, January 9, 2012 (UTC) At least it form Allanjeffs 12:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC) I was expecting worse... I guess I stand corrected. ''Ryan1000'' 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Chanda And gone...--Cy10 21:04, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Nope... its still here. —12R. ''' 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC) 06R.DANDO Tropical Disturbance 06R New disturbance here - not gonna become a depression. —''12R. '' 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC) But it's going to last for a long time.--Cy10 22:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC) And it looks subtropical.--Cy10 02:40, January 12, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Depression 06R I stand corrected.--Cy10 13:13, January 12, 2012 (UTC) Still there....--Cy10 18:06, January 13, 2012 (UTC) We should see this becoming a significant tropical system by the time this makes landfall. —''12R. '' 21:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Low chance.--Cy10 01:15, January 14, 2012 (UTC) I personally believe this could be Moderate Tropical Storm Dando in a couple days. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:50, January 14, 2012 (UTC) : I would like to take that a little further and bring it to Severe TS status. —''12R. '' 01:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 06R OR it doesn't develop at all!--Cy10 18:32, January 14, 2012 (UTC) You WILL find that it redevelops. —''12R. '' 18:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Maybe time will tell Allanjeffs 19:42, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Depression 06R (again) Redeveloped better than ever, now a 40mph STD in 10-min winds. Expected to make the transition to tropical just before landfall. Yqt1001 15:43, January 15, 2012 (UTC) What did I tell ya? Its Kiewii btw. 15:48, January 15, 2012 (UTC) But it might not make it for the transition.--Cy10 16:09, January 15, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Dando Got named, not expected to become tropical anymore. Yqt1001 18:35, January 15, 2012 (UTC) At least it was name its better than nothing Allanjeffs 22:01, January 15, 2012 (UTC) I knew it would get named! And also, we now have more named storms than last year. Andrew444TalkBlog 00:05, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Yeah that is incredible we may have an active season after allAllanjeffs 00:58, January 16, 2012 (UTC) I'm not that surprised, last year's SWIO season was like a 1914 AHS, the least active year ever, or in a very long time. This time(or year) though, the SPac's been a bit behind schedule. Ryan1000 15:51, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Dando has made landfall.--Cy10 19:35, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Then it should be gone soon. Andrew444TalkBlog 21:53, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Should probable be out at any momentAllanjeffs 05:01, January 17, 2012 (UTC) No longer an invest.--Cy10 05:36, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Dando Gone.--Cy10 05:37, January 17, 2012 (UTC) I knew he will be out at any momentAllanjeffs 12:46, January 17, 2012 (UTC) 07R.NONAME AOI: South of the Chagos We have really got to keep an eye on this one - forecast to intensify into a TC or ITC. —''12R. '' 21:24, January 16, 2012 (UTC) I can't wait to get our "E" storm! Andrew444TalkBlog 21:56, January 16, 2012 (UTC) We are really moving fast this year with name storms Allanjeffs 00:17, January 17, 2012 (UTC) 94S.INVEST Now a invest.--Cy10 02:11, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Anyone more think Ethel is coming?Allanjeffs 03:12, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Yup.--Cy10 03:43, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 07 We are going to see some rapid strengthening. This should become a STS in about two days time. —''12R. '' 12:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Here we go again! Andrew444TalkBlog 13:17, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 07 Yup... its coming. But I would rather watch the one in the Mozambique Channel, since this one isn't going to effect land (maybe Antarctica?). —''12R. '' 15:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC) 95S.INVEST 95S.INVEST Another one.. this time in the Mozambique Channel. —''12R. '' 08:14, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Australian Region 07U.HEIDI Tropical Low 07U New one here - cyclone watch issued for WA. Of course that means 07U has the possibility of becoming Heidi. Some good news for the guys in WA - the GFS previously had this making landfall as a C3 (ozzie), but now only a C1 (ozzie). —''13R. '' 11:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Heidi Now a TC. —''13R. '' 17:54, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Not sure what to expect from this other than some rainfall in northern Australia. Ryan1000 18:37, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :::Does anyone else see anything wrong with how the forecast calls for Heidi to remain a TS strength cyclone hundreds of miles inland..over desert..? Unless it explodes to a huge storm I don't see how it will even last that far inland. Yqt1001 20:21, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :::Maybe it would i don`t remember which was but it really stay as a cyclone and i think she will be stronger than a cat 1 cyclone Allanjeffs 20:24, January 10, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yqt, remember that some Austrailian cyclones last for a really long time inland.--Cy10 21:03, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::Now expected to become a C2 cyclone. --Cy10 03:10, January 11, 2012 (UTC) Now a Cat 2. —''12R. '' 07:13, January 11, 2012 (UTC) I knew this was going to be stronger than anticipated it Allanjeffs 12:46, January 11, 2012 (UTC) It won't get stronger before landfall. Andrew444TalkBlog 13:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC) :Yes Cyclone10, they last long overland because of their size, but Heidi is very tiny. Yqt1001 13:23, January 11, 2012 (UTC) ::@Yqt:Australia may be the world's driest continent, but as dry as they are, they also see rainfall in their rainy season which is heavy enough to sometimes cause floods. There may not be as much water on land as there is out at sea, but the water on the ground during floods or heavy rainfall can be used as a partial fuel for tropical storms, even though it isn't as much as out to sea, it can keep them alive for some time inland. Some storms in the Australian region even form over land. Their proxmitity to high SST's offshore can also have an impact on their intensity just inland or just offshore. Though I personally don't think Heidi will last that long inland, it could emerge off of Australia again. Ryan1000 21:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC) :::Last advisory by JTWC since it made landfall.--Cy10 21:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::Made landfall with 10-min winds of 70mph. JTWC said 1-min of 50mph? Anyways, interesting fact Ryan. Yqt1001 22:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC) :::::The Australian scale uses strongest km/hr gusts, but that's still rather odd... Ryan1000 23:45, January 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Now down to C1.--Cy10 02:18, January 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::As said earlier, Heidi's not done with us yet. If you look at the sattelite imagery, she's actually staying intact rather nicely over land. There is a possibility it could emerge off of Australia again, but hopefully flooding won't be that bad, if any. Ryan1000 14:59, January 12, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Low Heidi Down to a tropical low, but as Ryan said, this storm is staying intact over land. —''12R. '' 16:03, January 12, 2012 (UTC) It looks like we are going to be seeing another Tropical Low forming just about where Heidi formed, and will move west into the SWIO. It was first mentioned in the TWO at 4AM. —''12R. '' 18:23, January 12, 2012 (UTC) So if it develop in a cyclone would be Iggy right? weird name Allanjeffs 01:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC) If it's still in the Australian region, it will keep it's original name, so it would be renamed Heidi. I believe it would reccieve a different name if it crosses into the SWIO basin however, like Lee-Ariel in 2007. Ryan1000 02:04, January 13, 2012 (UTC) That is correct. Andrew444TalkBlog 02:43, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Thanks but I was talking of the tropical low that 12R.KIWII was talking about Allanjeffs 03:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC) :::Ryan, that rule was changed in 2008 (I think) so that storms only receive one name. I don't think that a situation where a storm gets two formal names can ever happen again. Yqt1001 03:56, January 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::Its not gonna develop into a cyclone in the next three days, but by looking at models, it could develop into a TC or ITC in the next week. —''12R. '' 10:29, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Heidi Gone.--Cy10 17:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC) The tropical low (previously discussed above) has formed (not mentioned by BoM) near 15S 105E. —''12R. '' 17:37, January 13, 2012 (UTC) @Yqt:I'm not sure if that rule still exists today or not for AUS/SWIO crossovers, but if it does, the only way we can tell for sure is if a storm crosses from AUS to SWIO this year... Anyhow, Heidi could regenerate off of Australia, though that's not likely. Ryan1000 17:59, January 13, 2012 (UTC) South Pacific Region 03F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 03F Here it is.--Cy10 23:17, January 8, 2012 (UTC) This storm is already the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SPAC cyclone season. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:26, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 03F Gone. —''13R. '' 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC) 04F.NONAME Tropical Depression 04F No THIS is the strongest storm of the season so far. —''13R. '' 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ...by 1 mbar..--Cy10 00:42, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Wow! The SPAC has just blown up! Andrew444TalkBlog 01:41, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 04F Done now. —''13R. '' 23:44, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Big fail.--Cy10 00:00, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Yeah i can`t argue with this one btw this are depressions? or just like low medium high the types of classifications we use in the Atlantic?Allanjeffs 04:50, January 10, 2012 (UTC) 05F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 05F New one here. —''13R. '' 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Each disturbance surpassing the other by a couple of millibar when is the good action start on this season?Allanjeffs 01:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC) 04F and 05F are now tying for the strongest storm of the season. But remember.. this is only January. We still have a lot more storms to come. —''13R. '' 10:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, February is the peak of the SHem season, and their March is like our October, so that bears watching too. Right now, this is the equivalent of the SHem's August. They're just getting warmed up. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Does this disturbance even exist now ? Allanjeffs 03:49, January 11, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 05F Gone.--Cy10 03:51, January 11, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: AUS: *Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted. *Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one? *Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts. --Cy10 01:54, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Mine: AUS: #Fina - 0% - No impact. #Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment? #Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad. SPAC: Andrew444TalkBlog 22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. —''13R. '' 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?--Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444TalkBlog 22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578.--Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Time for mine. #Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail #Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season #Heidi: 0% - Currently threatening WA —''12R. '' 21:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC) My turn : 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ? : 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going : 3Heidi? like this nameTBA